By Seth Mydans and Andrew C. Revkin
Published: May 4, 2007
BANGKOK: The world's established and emerging
powers will need to divert substantially from their current main energy
sources within a few decades to limit centuries of rising temperatures
and seas driven by the buildup of heat-trapping emissions in the air,
the top body studying climate change concluded Friday.
In an all-night session capping four days of talks, economists,
scientists, and government officials from more than 100 countries
agreed in Bangkok on the last sections of a report outlining ways to
limit such emissions, led by carbon dioxide, an unavoidable byproduct
of burning coal and oil.
The final report, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
said that the prompt slowing of emissions could set the stage later in
the century for the stabilization of the concentration of carbon
dioxide, which, at 380 parts per million now, has risen more than a
third since the start of the Industrial Revolution and could easily
double from the pre-industrial level within decades.
The report concluded that significant progress toward that goal
could be made in the next 25 years with known technologies and policy
shifts, setting the stage for what would have to be a century-long
transition to energy sources that come with no climate impacts.
Several authors said its message was clear.
"We can no longer make the excuse that we need to wait for more
science or the excuse that we need to wait for more technologies and
policy knowledge," said Adil Najam, an author of one chapter and an
associate professor of international negotiation at the Fletcher School
of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University near Boston. "To me the big
message," he said, "is that we now have both and we do not need to wait
any longer."
Hans Verlome of WWF International, who observed the process in
Bangkok, said that in the report, "scientists were able in a very
level-headed way to explain to policy makers the fundamental message
that the clean technology is available to solve these problems and to
do so at very low cost to our economies."
At a news conference concluding the talks, the chairman of the
climate change panel, Rajendra Pachauri, said a key to success would be
the workings of the democratic process as the public put pressure on
governments to act.
"I don't think you can ignore what the world is coming to understand as the implications of inaction," he said.
The report also made clear the risks of delay, noting that emissions
of greenhouse gases have risen 70 percent just since 1970 and could
rise 90 percent more by 2030 if nothing is done.
Carbon dioxide is particularly important not only because so much is
produced each year - about 25 billion tons - but because much of it
persists in the atmosphere, building up like unpaid credit card debt.
To stop the rise, the report's authors said, countries would need to
expand the adoption of existing policies that can cut emissions - like
a fuel tax or the binding limits set by the Kyoto Protocol - while also
bolstering research seeking new large-scale energy options. This work
would include pushing for advances in solar and nuclear power.
The meeting ended just after dawn Friday with several authors of the
report saying there had been relatively little last-minute fighting
with government officials over details. Governments have the power to
demand changes in some report language.
China, the United States, Saudi Arabia and some European countries
had been tussling over various sections. Countries whose economic
prospects are tied to fossil fuels were eager to play down language
showing the need to swiftly move away from such energy sources.
U.S. officials also complained that the report did not adequately
describe the need for enormous advances in energy technologies, no
matter what happens in the short term because of a carbon tax or cap.
Some European officials and scientists pressed to amplify statements
implying that the costs of aggressive emissions cuts were modest.
Bill Hare, a Greenpeace adviser and a co-author of the report, said
he was pleased with the way the delegations had worked together to seek
a consensus.
"Nearly everyone was constructive, as were China, India, Brazil, as
were the European countries," he said. "So in spite of the fact that
China had some quite worrying positions, they showed a great deal of
flexibility and courage in terms of putting aside those concerns that
they had in order to achieve a better outcome for the whole."
The report estimates that bringing global carbon dioxide emissions
by 2030 to levels measured in 2000 would require a cost on released
carbon dioxide of $50 to $100 a ton.
The report projects that this
shift might cause a small blunting of global economic activity,
resulting in an overall reduction of perhaps one tenth of a percentage
point a year through 2100 in the world's total economic activity, the
authors said.
Some of the experts and government officials involved in the final
discussions said in interviews and e-mail messages that the costs could
be substantially greater than that, adding that the report used very
rosy assumptions.
But a variety of participants, including some from the U.S.
government, said in interviews that it was hard to argue against such
an investment given the potential costs of inaction.
This is the third report this year from the climate panel, which was
formed under the auspices of the United Nations in 1988 to brief
countries periodically on risks from human and natural changes in
climate and options for limiting dangers.
In February, one team of experts concluded with near certainty that
most warming since 1950 had been driven by the rising concentrations in
the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
A second working group reported last month that the warming trend
was already measurably shifting weather, water and ecological patterns
and that hundreds of millions of people would face risks by the middle
of the century, ranging from lost water supplies to inundated coasts,
should trends persist.
The latest report focuses on strategies and costs for cutting the emissions of warming gases.
William Moomaw, a lead author of a chapter on energy options and a
professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University,
said he saw evidence, in the United States and other countries, that
big cuts could happen.
As evidence, he pointed to expanding requirements by states that
utilities derive growing amounts of power from wind or other renewable
sources; rapid improvements in energy efficiency for new homes and
large buildings; Europe's recent commitment to cutting emissions beyond
existing targets; and promising statements from China about policy
shifts.
"Here in early years of the 21st century we're looking for an energy
revolution that's as comprehensive as the one that occurred at
beginning of the 20th century, when we went from gaslight and
horse-drawn carriages to light bulbs and automobiles," Moomaw said. "In
1905, only 3 percent of homes had electricity. Right now, 3 percent is
about the same range as the amount of renewable energy we have today.
None of us can predict the future any more than we could in 1905, but
that suggests to me it may not be impossible to make that kind of
revolution again."
European officials have said the climate panel's reports will be
stressed when climate policy comes up at the next meeting of the Group
of 8 industrialized powers, which takes place next month.
The panel's report on emissions options is also expected to play a
role in shaping the next round of talks seeking new binding emissions
restrictions after those set under the Kyoto treaty end in 2012. Those
talks are scheduled to take place in Bali, Indonesia, in December.
Andrew C. Revkin reported from New York.
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